Specter's Seniority: the Lautenberg precedent is bad; Stabenow says 'this is midstream'

Politico has a new article today about Sen. Specter's seniority and potential party-switchers. (Yep, I focus on the seniority issue a lot, because it equals POWER and ability to bring home bacon.)

Some key excerpts:

Asked last week if he would have switched parties if he knew that he would lose his seniority, Specter smiled slyly and said only: “Well, I think we’ll get that straightened out.”
If he wins a sixth term next year, Specter remains confident he will win back his seniority at the start of the 112th Congress, but there are no guarantees when the Democratic Caucus debates the issue after the November 2010 elections. ...
senior Democrats insist this won’t be a problem in the future. They said Specter’s case was unique, given that he switched parties in the middle of a Congress strictly to preserve his chance at winning reelection next year — unlike the case of Shelby and other party defectors who switched before the start of a new Congress, enabling them to be part of the usual seniority shuffle when a new session begins.
“This is midstream,” said Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), chairwoman of the Democratic Steering and Outreach Committee, which advises Reid on committee assignments. “The real question will come up in the next Congress.” ...
And Specter’s case is not the first time a senior member of the Senate has lost his seniority. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) returned to the Senate after the 2002 elections — after retiring from a 19-year career in the Senate following the 2000 elections. Lautenberg tried in vain to have all his years of service counted so he could rejoin committees at a very senior level, and he was denied.

Also newsworthy today:

Sen. Specter supports Obama Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor.

Sen. Specter officially switched his party registration.

Several states have already passed laws like the Employee Free Choice Act and the sky hasn't fallen

Nathan Newman of TPMCafe and Progressive States Network reports that several states have already passed laws like the Employee Free Choice Act and the sky hasn't fallen -- including 4 of the 6 that border Pennsylvania. He concludes:

So you've got one system -- NLRB elections with a demonstrated history of massive, overwhelming employer abuse -- and another system -- majority signup operating in many states with no evidence of any of the abuses alleged by opponents. If it works in the states, why not bring its benefits to more employes?

Pa2010 reports today on rumors that Joe Torsella is resisting efforts to have him become head of the Greater Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce. His spokesman told Pa2010 Torsella's interest "is in running for U.S. Senate."

A New York Times article today has quotes from several senators (different ones from the ones in the Politico story), to this effect:

Several senators said they felt badly for Mr. Specter and several voiced compassion.

(Of course, that's not the same as saying, "Sure, we'll let you go ahead of us with your 29 years of Republican seniority.")

Dem senators cast doubt on Specter seniority restoration

Politico reports today:

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Pa.) may not regain his three decades of seniority even if he wins his Senate seat as a Democrat, robbing him of a key argument he’s making in his 2010 reelection campaign.

The article has quotes from Sens. Durbin, Mikulski, Murray and Landrieu, among others, either saying some version of "not so fast, Sen. Specter" or "we'll see."

Yes, Sen. Specter is getting a Judiciary subcommittee chairmanship, and the Associated Press calls it a "plum" and "the Judiciary Committee's busiest subcommittee, responsible for legislation on drug sentencing."
On the other hand, Politico calls his subcommittee post "a minor consolation."

Here's my take: Judiciary isn't the committee that lets a senator bring home the bacon. Appropriations is. And as of now, he's still the least senior Dem on the Appropriations Committee.

And THIS, from the Politico story, is eyebrow-raising (and unlikely to help him with the other Democratic senators):

But Specter didn’t promise to vote with Democrats on all procedural votes, as Reid said he would on national television a day before. “I will talk to Sen. Reid about that,” Specter said.

Pgh. Post-Gazette Covers Specter Seniority Loss

Here are some key excerpts of the article from Thursday's Post-Gazette:

...the state's senior senator is at least temporarily last in Democratic seniority, blunting one of the chief arguments he planned to use in his quest for a record sixth term.
The arrangement threatens the influence that Mr. Specter had counted on wielding through his once-senior spots on powerful panels, including the judiciary and the appropriations committees.

"This raises a very real question for Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania, and that is, 'What does he have to offer?'" said Mark Nevins, a spokesman for Joe Torsella, the first declared challenger for the Democratic seat. "He has no seniority; he has a 75 percent voting record with [former President] George Bush."

At last night's Democratic Party dinner at the Westin Convention Center hotel, Downtown, Jack Shea, president of the Allegheny County Labor Council, blistered Mr. Specter in a speech in which he predicted that the senator would suffer politically if he did not change his stance on the Employee Free Choice Act.

"Voters don't tend to focus on who's got what chairmanship," Mr. Sestak said, but he argued that a larger concern was whether Mr. Specter would prove to be a reliably Democratic voice in the longer term on issues such as health care and the economy.

The paper also says Pittsburgh City Controller Michael Lamb "said seniority issues wouldn't influence his consideration of the race."

Seniority Shockwave and Getting Seniority Back Not a Sure Thing

OK, so I was tired when I put this in a roundup last night rather than giving it the "Holy crap!" treatment -- but Sen. Specter losing his seniority for the next 1 1/2 years -- and maybe not getting it back -- yikes, that's big.

One of his biggest selling points for the primary and the general election was going to be "I can bring home the bacon because I have almost 30 years of seniority." That ability was a major reason counties all over Western PA were scrambling to get even a sliver of their communities into Congressman Murtha's district during the last redistricting. (See the 12th District map here.)

At least one commentator today likened the situation to Specter being on probation. That seems like a good description.

But even if Specter does shape up, I wonder -- of the 58 Democratic senators who now outrank Specter in seniority -- if Specter returns for the 2011-12 session, how many of those more senior Democratic senators will be willing to let him claim part or all of his seniority from his time as a Republican?

Senator Specter is of course expressing confidence that he will get his seniority back.

I am not so sure. If he returns in 2011, there have already been hints that some Democratic senators will remember his work on the Judiciary Committee helping Clarence Thomas, John Roberts and Samuel Scalito, er, Alito get on the Supreme Court.

Others will look at how high he would rank on the Appropriations Committee and think, "Hey, I want that money going to MY state." (And some would also recall how much money he's appropriated for ineffective "abstinence-only" sex education over the years.)

From a Politico article today, here's a sampling of what I mean:

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), chairwoman of an Appropriations subcommittee who would have been passed over by the more senior Specter, said it would have been an unfair move.
"When you get to be a chairman you really have some control of that area, and that's what makes it interesting for me," Feinstein told POLITICO. "Somebody comes in on top - then everybody gets bumped. Then somebody gets bumped from the committee. That's a very hard thing if you've got 14 years having been on that committee. Obviously you'd like to stay where you are. I understand how people feel about it."
Feinstein said she's heard other members complain about Specter keeping his seniority too. "It's a concern and I think Sen. Specter will understand that."

You get the idea...