Casey: Sestak would be "very competitive" vs. Specter in primary

From the WhoRunsGov Plum Line blog -- reporting on a recent public radio interview:

Here’s what Casey said:
“If Congressman Sestak runs, the next option is to have a primary that’s not … divisive and acrimonious so that we have a split in the party going in to the general election. That’s my hope.
But he’s a very strong candidate and if he runs it’ll be a very, very competitive primary.”

That’s the first acknowledgment from one of Specter’s Dem establishment supporters of the challenge Sestak poses, and could give a boost to Sestak by helping with fundraising and persuading insiders that his candidacy is real.

OUCH. United Steelworkers un-invite Specter, cheer Sestak. Why? Employee Free Choice.

Chris Bowers at Open Left has an interesting post up today. He says Specter was invited in Feb. to speak at the United Steelworkers' legislative conference, but the rank and file said NO when they found out, so he was un-invited. Sestak spoke Sunday and was greeted with a "rousing ovation."

In the comments at DailyKos, Mr. Savage posts a 9-point version of what he has to say about this, including:

8. Specter sent a whiny-ass letter to be read to the delegates, which was greeted with jeers.

(Warning: point 9 uses the F-bomb.)

Beats me why Senator Specter hasn't gotten on board with Employee Free Choice yet. Every day he waits hurts him.

Poll: PA Dems who know both pick Sestak 52-44

Wow. Among PA Dems know who both Sestak & Specter are, Sestak leads 52-44.

As Chris Bowers says at the post linked above, claims "that Sestak has no chance are unmasked as either absurd or desperate. Sestak is already winning among Democrats who know both candidates."

Roll Call: Labor Has Tough Choice in Pennsylvania

Roll Call, a Capitol Hill newspaper, has an article today titled Labor Has Tough Choice in Pennsylvania:

Pennsylvania AFL-CIO President Bill George, a longtime ally of Specter’s, has seen his organization support the Senator in his last three re-election campaigns. But this time around, George was hesitant to predict whether the AFL-CIO would back Specter in 2010.
“He did give us the vote two years ago, and our rank and file don’t know why he can’t give us the vote now, when it’s exactly the same bill,” George said. “And I can’t explain it to our members.”
The AFL-CIO, with 900,000 members, is the most powerful union in the state, and the vast majority of its ranks are Democrats. Specter earned a 61 percent lifetime voting record from the national AFL-CIO, while Sestak earned a 96 percent rating. ...
Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney said he has Specter’s personal assurance that he is working every day with his colleagues to develop some compromise language for EFCA. After all, Rooney pointed out, Specter isn’t the only Democrat who has said he is inclined to vote against the current version of EFCA.
“I know firsthand from Sen. Specter that he has been working daily over the past few weeks to come to compromise language to be able to get 60 votes to survive a filibuster,” Rooney said. “I can’t think of anybody better to bring about a resolution, especially among other Senators who have concerns.”

ALSO: Tom Ferrick at Pa2010 says Specter should be worried about Sestak and that Sestak has a real shot.

More reasons we need public option in health care

From Saturday's New York Times, here's more evidence why we need a public insurance option in health care reform, to keep the insurance companies honest and provide real competition for them --

IS your medical insurance bad for your health? If you have a high-deductible plan, the answer may be yes.
The investment firm Fidelity recently surveyed employees at various companies who had opted for a high-deductible health plan linked to a health savings account. About half of those workers said they or a family member had chosen not to seek medical care for minor ailments as many as four times in the last year to avoid paying the out-of-pocket expenses.
As any doctor will tell you, small health problems left untreated can become big problems, warns Kathleen Stoll, director of health policy at the health care advocacy group Families USA. “This is just one of the many high-deductible pitfalls consumers need to watch out for,” Ms. Stoll said. ...
low-income families don’t benefit from the tax breaks associated with health savings accounts the way middle- and high-income earners do.
Even if you can afford the costs, the loopholes that insurers often weave into these plans to reduce premiums can mean that even after your deductible is met, you may not have the coverage you need to handle a serious illness or accident.

The article goes on to describe other charming features like caps on lifetime coverage, caps on doctor visits, and this beaut - caps on hospitalization costs -- for example:

Mr. Claxton has seen policies that so severely restrict hospitalization that they will not pay for the first day you are admitted. “That’s the day when you’re most likely to have the most costs,” he said. “Think of it: You’re admitted to the E.R., you have surgery and you spend the night in the I.C.U., and none of it is covered.”

As I've blogged about before, including competition from a public option (think Medicare for people under 65) is one of the biggest things we can do to rein in out-of-control health care cost inflation. And it would actually COVER people. What a concept!

In Senate race punditry, Pa. pundits Madonna and Young give their take on Sestak running for Senate.

OUCH. Poll out today: 63% of Pa. Dems want Specter to face primary challenge.

(via Pa2010)
28% of Pa. Dems say Specter should be nominee. PDF at Pa2010

And from Talking Points Memo today: Sestak Talks Political Strategy Against Arlen Specter

Sestak says Obama can’t talk him out of a Senate run

(h/t Pa2010) Sestak says Obama can’t talk him out of a Senate run:

Sestak also said that he wouldn’t back off even if the major unions reached a deal with Specter on health care and on the Employee Free Choice Act and endorsed Specter in the primary.... Sestak added that even if he didn’t get the big unions, he’d still corral some labor support.

“My belief is that there will be a number of unions that still wouldn’t be for Arlen,” he said. ....And in an ironic twist, Sestak also revealed that a few months ago, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had commissioned a poll testing him running against then-Republican Specter in a general election — and that it showed Sestak winning.

Wash Post analyst: Poll should provoke 'outright alarm' for Specter; Pa. analyst: Sestak will need $10 million for primary

(h/t P-G Early Returns) Washington Post's Cillizza: at this early stage of the race, poll should provoke "outright alarm" for Specter

Pundit Madonna: Primary no ‘cakewalk’ for Specter, Sestak will need $10 million for primary (at last report, he had $3 million)

Op-ed by Tony Campisi, 1st vice chair of the Delaware County Dem Party (Sestak's district): Unlike Specter, Sestak stands for something

Worth noting - the Obama fundraiser in L.A. that Specter attended was for the Democratic National Committee -- *not* for Specter. Yes, Specter will probably reap some good fundraising contacts from having been there, but the $3 million fundraiser itself was *not* for him.

Sestak leaves a SMALL doubt about Senate run

From Post-Gazette Early Returns transcript of Sestak appearance on CNN:

"Wolf, I personally have made a decision that I intend to get in this race with one other item. I haven't sat down and had the time to sit down with my 8-year-old daughter or my wife to make sure that we are all ready to get in.

And I say that, if you don't mind, because when I got in this after getting out of the military 31 years in the first race two years ago, my daughter had a brain tumor. And we needed to make sure we were getting in this to pay back for this great health care we have been given, together, as a unit. And so that's where the final decision will be made, with us as a nuclear family."

New poll shows Sestak in better position

(h/t Pa2010) The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza reports on a new poll:

New Poll Shows Specter Support Soft: A new survey of Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters funded by a labor-aligned 527 group shows that while Sen. Arlen Specter starts any primary race as a favorite, there is significant weakness in his numbers. Specter leads Rep. Joe Sestak, who continues to mull a primary bid, 55 percent to 34 percent, according to the survey, which was conducted for Citizens for Strength and Security by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. But, not only is Sestak known by just three in ten Democrats in the state (suggesting room for real growth), many Democrats are taking a wait and see approach to Specter. ....

Organized labor, which provided nearly all of the funding for Citizens for Strength and Security during the 2008 election, remains skeptical about Specter due to his stated opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act. With a re-written version of that bill expected in the next month or two, this poll is meant as a warning to the newest Democrat that straying too far from party orthodoxy could cost him dearly.

TPM Scoop: Sestak's Running

Talking Points Memo has the scoop:

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) is privately telling supporters that he intends to run for Senate, TPMDC has confirmed.
"He intends to get in the race," says Meg Infantino, the Congressman's sister, who works at Sestak for Congress. "In the not too distant future, he will sit down with his wife and daughter to make the final decision." ...
Earlier today, a Sestak volunteer and contributor received a handwritten note from Sestak himself, announcing his intent to run and asking for a contribution. The source provided TPMDC a scan of the letter....

Sestak: 'Odds are great' he will run

Sestak fans, you may get your wish, according to what he told the Philadelphia Inquirer this weekend:

Sestak said he was "leaning very much toward getting in" the race... Sestak said he would make up his mind in the next couple of months, adding that "odds are great" he will opt to run. ..."Arlen's a good guy and he's done good things in the past, but I'm not sure he's the one to bring about change," Sestak said yesterday. "I can't see how someone who's been opposed to some of these policies can be relied upon to carry them out" through 2016.

WITF public radio in Harrisburg covers Young Philly Politics' Dan Urevick-Ackelsberg wanting Sestak to get in.

Meanwhile, Sen. Specter's only declared Democratic opponent gets what Pa2010 calls a "fawning" profile in CQ. (At this writing, CQ hasn't corrected what I emailed them about this morning -- that PA has 203 state House districts, not 151.)

More on Sestak's record; More Specter reaction; Psst - what about public option in health care?

First, from the Tribune-Review, more on Sestak's record and labor dissatisfaction with Specter:

Sestak, a former defense counterterrorism expert, sponsored legislation to set a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq, but voted against cutting appropriations as a way to end the war. And although he supported the bank bailout and the economic stimulus plan, he recently voted against bills limiting executive compensation.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce rated Sestak 60 percent on its issues in 2007, compared with 82 percent for Specter. The AFL-CIO gave Specter a 68 percent rating in 2007, and Sestak a 96 percent rating for his votes on organized labor's priorities.

The story also contains this:

Labor leaders are pressing Specter for his failure to support the Employee Free Choice Act, commonly known as card check. The legislation would have made it easier for labor unions to organize.
"Arlen drove labor's support away from himself over the last three or four weeks," said Allegheny County Labor Council President Jack Shea. "The rank and file are mad, not only in Western Pennsylvania but also in Eastern Pennsylvania and Central Pennsylvania. They are upset."
Shea said it's too early to say which candidate organized labor would support, but that it would be a mistake to dismiss Sestak, who supports card check.
"I think his stock has risen since Specter came over to the D side, if for no other reason than he's getting a lot more play nationally. ... I think he's a strong candidate," Shea said.

The Philadelphia Daily News reports on Specter's visit to the Democratic Party's Philadelphia pre-election-day fundraiser. Apparently he was "warmly" received by many there. However, Tony Rhodin at the Easton Express-Times fired off a blast Monday night, titled "Arlen Specter not a Democrat, so why would Democrats vote for this Republican? Won't another Dem give us a choice?"

Interesting story at Politico about Specter's fundraising:

He has a lot of work ahead of him. He’s raised about $9 million for his reelection campaign next year and has about $7 million in the bank. Given the cost of recent Keystone State Senate races, he’ll need at least another $10 million and more if he winds up with a Democratic primary challenger, said Jennifer Duffy, an expert on Senate races at the Cook Political Report.

Speaking of fundraising, the organizers of the recent "Draft Sestak" online straw poll announced today the creation of a "Draft Sestak Fund" page on ActBlue.

Worth noting that there's also an ActBlue page for Joe Torsella (who has already announced for Senate).

Still waiting to hear from Congressman Sestak and Mr. Torsella where they stand on the hugely important question of including a public option in the universal health care bill, as President Obama wants. (Meanwhile, Sen. Specter recently hinted at a leftward shift on that crucial question.) More about public option here and here.

The Washington Post reports that a 2004 ad Santorum did for Specter ("Arlen is with us on the votes that matter") is making the rounds in D.C.

Specter hints at leftward shift on health care; Casey not slamming door on a primary

Doing a roundup tonight..

Daily Kos' take on Specter hinting at a leftward shift on health care -- looks like the pressure of a possible primary is starting to work.

(CNN) – Pennsylvania’s junior Sen. Bob Casey appeared to open the door Sunday for a possible challenger to Arlen Specter, the state’s senior senator and a newly-minted Democrat.

Post-Gazette Early Returns covers the results of the progressives' online SestakPoll:

Should U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak run against Arlen Specter in the Dem primary next year, he may have a good portion of the party's netroots behind him: in an online poll tied to major leftwing blogs DailyKos and Open Left, 86 percent of voters nationwide and 85 percent statewide said the formal Navy admiral should make a run against the incumbent. There were 7,501 votes cast nationwide and 949 in Pa.

Keystone Progress' latest email encourages Pennsylvanians to contact Sen. Specter and urge him to support the Senate version of the Credit Cardholder's Bill of Rights that passed the House 357-70 recently.

Health care - HHS secretary makes clear: It would be a public OPTION, not a takeover

From the Los Angeles Times:

Obama backs public and private healthcare insurance
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius tells Congress that the administration wants to create a government-run program to encourage competition.
...
The Obama administration's senior healthcare official Wednesday flatly rejected the idea of taking overthe nation's medical insurance system, saying the federal government did not want to assume management of healthcare coverage....
Sebelius responded that states for years had offered their government employees a choice between a public insurance program and a private plan for healthcare coverage.
"It can work very effectively, and does work very effectively," she said, indicating that such arrangements could be a model for overhauling insurance markets nationally.

Also, from the Associated Press today:
Sources: Senators weigh 3 government health plans

President Barack Obama and many Democrats say a government option would serve as a check to keep the private insurance industry honest. ...

The three approaches being discussed are:
_Create a plan that resembles Medicare, administered by the Health and Human Services department.
_Adopt a Medicare-like plan, but pick an outside party to run it. That way government officials would not directly control the day-to-day operations.
_Leave it up to individual states to set up a public insurance plan for their residents.

And this part jumps out at me -- boldface added:

If the public plan were open to all employers and individuals — and if it paid doctors and hospitals the same as Medicare — it would quickly grow to 131 million members, while enrollment in private insurance plans would plummet, the study found.
By paying Medicare rates the government plan would be able to set premiums well below what private plans charge. Employers and individuals would rush to sign up.

UPDATE:

And here's a quick check of where major Democratic PA Senate candidates or potential candidates stand on the public option:

Senator Specter: Opposed (for now)

Congressman Sestak: Reportedly 'unsure'

Joe Torsella: We're awaiting his response

Daily Kos poll of PA Senate race; Roundup of other developments

If you haven't seen it yet, Daily Kos commissioned a PA poll and two key findings are:

... only 37 percent of Democrats are definitely committed to Specter.

Specter (D) 55 Toomey (R) 31
Sestak (D) 37 Toomey (R) 32
Torsella (D) 35 Toomey (R) 33
Even the guys who no one has ever heard of are beating Toomey.

No wonder the White House is reportedly concerned.

You've probably also seen that Ridge decided not to run. Smart move.

One more "in case you missed it": Politico reports some are questioning the propriety of Sen. Specter's other campaign site that's named "Specter for the Cure." (Of course, cancer patients would also benefit from having a public option in health care.)

Pgh. Post-Gazette Covers Specter Seniority Loss

Here are some key excerpts of the article from Thursday's Post-Gazette:

...the state's senior senator is at least temporarily last in Democratic seniority, blunting one of the chief arguments he planned to use in his quest for a record sixth term.
The arrangement threatens the influence that Mr. Specter had counted on wielding through his once-senior spots on powerful panels, including the judiciary and the appropriations committees.

"This raises a very real question for Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania, and that is, 'What does he have to offer?'" said Mark Nevins, a spokesman for Joe Torsella, the first declared challenger for the Democratic seat. "He has no seniority; he has a 75 percent voting record with [former President] George Bush."

At last night's Democratic Party dinner at the Westin Convention Center hotel, Downtown, Jack Shea, president of the Allegheny County Labor Council, blistered Mr. Specter in a speech in which he predicted that the senator would suffer politically if he did not change his stance on the Employee Free Choice Act.

"Voters don't tend to focus on who's got what chairmanship," Mr. Sestak said, but he argued that a larger concern was whether Mr. Specter would prove to be a reliably Democratic voice in the longer term on issues such as health care and the economy.

The paper also says Pittsburgh City Controller Michael Lamb "said seniority issues wouldn't influence his consideration of the race."

Sestak Keeps Up 'Reliability' Drumbeat; More Reasons Ridge and Specter Early Leads Don't Mean Much

Sestak kept up his drumbeat on "'How reliable will (Specter) be?'" in interviews with CNN and Politico.

Good roundup from the Post-Gazette's Early Returns blog on what I consider to be more reasons not to buy the Ridge hype, even if he does run. (Example: The Republican base would just LOVE that he voted for the 1994 assault-weapons ban.)

Speaking of not buying hype or early polls, Chris Bowers said this yesterday:

Democratic primary: Republican polling out (of) Public Opinion Strategies shows Specter leading Sestak 57%-20% in the Democratic primary. While it may seem strange to hear me say this, these are not terrible numbers. This week will be the all-time peak for Specter's popularity among Pennsylvania Democrats. If 57% is the best he can do, without anyone really making the case against him from a Democratic perspective, then he is vulnerable.
Now, these are not great numbers for Sestak, either. While he would likely receive the lion's share of undecideds due to his low name ID, I had been hoping for him to be within 20% of Specter. Had that been the case, then he would have been virtually assured of victory in the event of a primary challenge. While these numbers show that he could potentially win, they also show it would be far from a slam dunk. The relative difficulty of this campaign versus winning re-election in the increasingly Democratic PA-07 might cause him to think twice about running statewide.

Major Blogs Running Straw Poll at SestakPoll.com.

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee PAC has put a site up for a straw poll of the Democratic "netroots" (that's short for Internet grassroots) on whether we should "draft" Sestak to run against Specter. Several major blogs are participating.

It's at www.SestakPoll.com. The site has some interesting point/counterpoints posted, including an insightful one from Dan Urevick-Ackelsberg — editor of Young Philly Politics.

Sestak Unsure on Public Option in Health Care Reform

This has the potential to be a BIG deal. From Talking Points Memo:

...there may not be much daylight between Specter and Sestak on at least one of these issues. Sestak says he's still unsure whether he supports a public health insurance option as an element of comprehensive health reform. He plans to discuss the issue further with SEIU president Andy Stern and others and come to a decision in the coming weeks, but if he ultimately comes down against that policy, he'll be in just about the same camp as his new rival, who came out against a public option over the weekend. Obviously that means less in the House (where Sestak serves) than it does in the Senate (where Specter potentially wields enormous influence), but no less a figure than Howard Dean has said that comprehensive health reform requires a public option.
Last night, Stern told ABC news that "[i]t is hard to imagine any union supporting a candidate in the Democratic Party for the US Senate who doesn't have strong positions on both healthcare and Employee Free Choice."...

Here's part of a Specter Watch post from Sunday about public option in health care reform:

This is one of the biggest issues of the year and a priority for President Obama (and it's good policy, too, by the way). Including competition from a public option (think Medicare for people under 65) is one of the biggest things we can do to rein in out-of-control health care cost inflation.