Wash Post analyst: Poll should provoke 'outright alarm' for Specter; Pa. analyst: Sestak will need $10 million for primary

(h/t P-G Early Returns) Washington Post's Cillizza: at this early stage of the race, poll should provoke "outright alarm" for Specter

Pundit Madonna: Primary no ‘cakewalk’ for Specter, Sestak will need $10 million for primary (at last report, he had $3 million)

Op-ed by Tony Campisi, 1st vice chair of the Delaware County Dem Party (Sestak's district): Unlike Specter, Sestak stands for something

Worth noting - the Obama fundraiser in L.A. that Specter attended was for the Democratic National Committee -- *not* for Specter. Yes, Specter will probably reap some good fundraising contacts from having been there, but the $3 million fundraiser itself was *not* for him.

New poll shows Sestak in better position

(h/t Pa2010) The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza reports on a new poll:

New Poll Shows Specter Support Soft: A new survey of Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters funded by a labor-aligned 527 group shows that while Sen. Arlen Specter starts any primary race as a favorite, there is significant weakness in his numbers. Specter leads Rep. Joe Sestak, who continues to mull a primary bid, 55 percent to 34 percent, according to the survey, which was conducted for Citizens for Strength and Security by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. But, not only is Sestak known by just three in ten Democrats in the state (suggesting room for real growth), many Democrats are taking a wait and see approach to Specter. ....

Organized labor, which provided nearly all of the funding for Citizens for Strength and Security during the 2008 election, remains skeptical about Specter due to his stated opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act. With a re-written version of that bill expected in the next month or two, this poll is meant as a warning to the newest Democrat that straying too far from party orthodoxy could cost him dearly.

Daily Kos poll of PA Senate race; Roundup of other developments

If you haven't seen it yet, Daily Kos commissioned a PA poll and two key findings are:

... only 37 percent of Democrats are definitely committed to Specter.

Specter (D) 55 Toomey (R) 31
Sestak (D) 37 Toomey (R) 32
Torsella (D) 35 Toomey (R) 33
Even the guys who no one has ever heard of are beating Toomey.

No wonder the White House is reportedly concerned.

You've probably also seen that Ridge decided not to run. Smart move.

One more "in case you missed it": Politico reports some are questioning the propriety of Sen. Specter's other campaign site that's named "Specter for the Cure." (Of course, cancer patients would also benefit from having a public option in health care.)

PA Pollster Borick: Specter Vulnerable in Democratic Primary; and a Comment on Polls

In a Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed today, pollster Christopher Borick from the Lehigh Valley says Toomey's near-miss in the 2004 primary shows Specter isn't assured of winning the nomination in the 2010 Democratic primary:

Perpetually denigrated as a RINO (Republican In Name Only) during much of his career, Specter has instantly become Pennsylvania's most famous DINO: Democrat In Name Only. A smart fifth grader with access to Google could put together decades' worth of votes putting Specter at odds with Democratic positions. From Anita Hill to union card check, there is no shortage of material.
And, as recent elections have shown, nothing ramps up Democrats like tying a candidate to Bush. Even with Bush out of the spotlight, a series of ads reminding Democratic primary voters of the many times Specter went along with the former president could be a potent weapon. Specter's good friend Joe Lieberman can attest to the perils of getting too close to Bush.

When a party is weak, settling makes strategic sense. But the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania is anything but weak.

End of quoting Dr. Borick -- here are some thoughts of my own:


There are at least two polls out today, and frankly I think it's too early to put much stock in any of them. For one thing, Specter will probably show a HUGE lead in any Dem primary poll right now over Sestak, Torsella or anyone else, mainly due to name recognition. (Although it would be interesting if a pollster asks Dems if they want Specter as their nominee or "someone else.")


My gut is:

• that any reasonably moderate to progressive, mainstream, credible Democrat should beat Toomey;
  
• that Toomey will probably win the Republican nomination even if Ridge or Gerlach get in, mainly because "moderate" and "pro-choice" (in Ridge's case -- not sure about Gerlach?) are the kiss of death with the Republican base.

Worth noting, even if he is from Sestak's home county -- Delaware County Dem chairman Cliff Wilson told Pa2010, "I think [Sestak] would have an excellent chance of actually beating Specter in a Democratic primary." According to another Pa2010 post, Wilson, "who emphasized he hasn’t spoken with the Congressman about the race since Specter’s defection, put the odds of a Sestak run at 50-50."