PA Pollster Borick: Specter Vulnerable in Democratic Primary; and a Comment on Polls

In a Philadelphia Inquirer op-ed today, pollster Christopher Borick from the Lehigh Valley says Toomey's near-miss in the 2004 primary shows Specter isn't assured of winning the nomination in the 2010 Democratic primary:

Perpetually denigrated as a RINO (Republican In Name Only) during much of his career, Specter has instantly become Pennsylvania's most famous DINO: Democrat In Name Only. A smart fifth grader with access to Google could put together decades' worth of votes putting Specter at odds with Democratic positions. From Anita Hill to union card check, there is no shortage of material.
And, as recent elections have shown, nothing ramps up Democrats like tying a candidate to Bush. Even with Bush out of the spotlight, a series of ads reminding Democratic primary voters of the many times Specter went along with the former president could be a potent weapon. Specter's good friend Joe Lieberman can attest to the perils of getting too close to Bush.

When a party is weak, settling makes strategic sense. But the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania is anything but weak.

End of quoting Dr. Borick -- here are some thoughts of my own:


There are at least two polls out today, and frankly I think it's too early to put much stock in any of them. For one thing, Specter will probably show a HUGE lead in any Dem primary poll right now over Sestak, Torsella or anyone else, mainly due to name recognition. (Although it would be interesting if a pollster asks Dems if they want Specter as their nominee or "someone else.")


My gut is:

• that any reasonably moderate to progressive, mainstream, credible Democrat should beat Toomey;
  
• that Toomey will probably win the Republican nomination even if Ridge or Gerlach get in, mainly because "moderate" and "pro-choice" (in Ridge's case -- not sure about Gerlach?) are the kiss of death with the Republican base.

Worth noting, even if he is from Sestak's home county -- Delaware County Dem chairman Cliff Wilson told Pa2010, "I think [Sestak] would have an excellent chance of actually beating Specter in a Democratic primary." According to another Pa2010 post, Wilson, "who emphasized he hasn’t spoken with the Congressman about the race since Specter’s defection, put the odds of a Sestak run at 50-50."